After the storm: housebuilding’s prospects following the mini-budget

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Kwasi Kwarteng’s growth plan was met with financial turmoil on the markets, but how badly is housebuilding likely to be affected? 

Ever since Kwasi Kwarteng’s ill-omened “fiscal event” just over two weeks ago, the airwaves have been filled with doom and gloom about the housing market. Given that the chancellor included a £1.6bn per annum stamp duty giveaway among his growth plan measures, it’s probably pretty safe to say that a collapse in housebuilder share prices – now down anything between seven and 18 per cent since his announcement – plus predictions of falls of 10-15% in house prices and a steep drop in transactions, were not what he had hoped for.

Kwarteng’s announcement, of course, came amid a period of already weakening sentiment in the housing market, with housebuilders having reported falling reservation rates over the summer, and the Halifax’s latest numbers, published on Friday, showing prices have essentially stayed flat since June. Neal Hudson, MD of market analyst Resi Analsyst, told Building’s sister title Housing Today shortly after the mini budget the market now looks to be heading for the “worst case scenario”.

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